子女教育、代际支持与家庭贫困的变动

子女教育是影响农村家庭贫困变动的一个重要因素。通过对14省区609户农村家庭调查结果的分析,子女接受教育程度越高,自身一代家庭摆脱贫困的比例越高,并且能传承下代家庭使其免受贫困;家庭贫困代际变动的断裂点为15年(大专教育)。     

金融反贫困效应的研究综述

本文主要是以金融发展与贫困减缓之间的作用机制为基础,对国内外的相关研究文献进行了梳理与评述,并且发现由于研究方法和研究角度的差异,学者们对金融发展是否减缓贫困得出了不同的结论,而这些具有争论的研究成果既丰富了金融发展对贫困减缓的研究,也为将来的研究提供了启示。     

地方财政支出减贫效应的省际差异比较--基于中部五省经验数据的分析

降低乃至消除贫困是世界各国政府面临的重大难题之一,部分地方财政支出项目能够有效地降低或消除贫困问题的发生。文章构建了一个分析由农林水事务、教育、医疗卫生与社会保障和就业支出四项财政支出分量构成的财政支出总量及各财政支出分量与贫困减缓之间关系的理论框架,在此基础上采用中部5省1994-2013年的省级数据,通过总量回归模型与分量回归模型分别对各省财政支出总量与支出分量的减贫效应进行实证检验,并对地方财政支出减贫效应的省际差异进行了比较,以期对地方政府优化财政支出结构,提高财政资源利用效率,利用财政支出减少贫困具有一定的指导意义。     

Childbirth and poverty in Europe: A dynamic bivariate approach

We use the 2015–2018 European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions panel data and a dynamic bivariate probit model to estimate the impact of childbirth on the risk of poverty in 25 European countries. We model both poverty and childbirth mechanisms, identifying genuine state dependence and accounting for feedback effects from past poverty to childbirth. We find that childbirth slightly increases the risk of poverty in Europe, but some heterogeneities emerge at the country level. When disentangling the effects of childbirth conditional on past poverty status, it appears that childbirth determines redistributive effects possibly induced by welfare systems. We find evidence of genuine state dependence and suggests that discouraging factors induced by the experience of poverty itself has increased over time. The risk of poverty is triggered by the presence of dependent members in the household, while education and employment stability are helpful to combat poverty.     

中国减贫战略转型及其面临的挑战

2020年中国将向全世界宣告消除了贫困,并进行减贫战略的转型,届时很可能从使用绝对贫困线改为采用相对贫困标准。在这一历史性时刻,有必要回顾中国的减贫历程,并对未来新的减贫战役进行展望。特别地,有必要探讨这样的转型意味着什么?又会带来哪些挑战?中国是否应该进行这样的转型?基于Shorrocks and Wan(2009)的方法,本文将国家统计局发布的收入分组数据“还原”为个体观察值,在不同的贫困线或贫困标准下,估算改革开放后中国及其各省份的绝对贫困和相对贫困发生率,并简单评估中国的减贫成就。特别地,本文通过比较绝对贫困发生率和相对贫困发生率,试图说明中国采用相对贫困标准为时过早,同时还将讨论转型使用相对贫困标准可能带来的一系列难以应对的挑战,提出相关政策建议。     

Minimum Wage: Does it Improve Welfare in Thailand?

We study the causal impact of the minimum wage on labor market outcomes, household consumption, inequality and poverty in Thailand by relying on policy variation in minimum wages over time across provinces. We find that minimum‐wage increases have a large and significant impact on the likelihood of working in the uncovered sector among workers with elementary education. However, the impact is very small and insignificant among other labor market groups. In contrast, the minimum wage has large positive effects on the formal sector wages of low‐earning workers, such as the young, elderly and low educated. Increases in the minimum wage are associated with reductions in household poverty and consumption inequality at the bottom half of the distribution.     

Linkages between poverty and income inequality of urban–rural sector: a time series analysis of India’s urban-based aspirations from 1951 to 1994

This study examines the impact of urban and rural development on poverty and inequality in India before economic reform. The methodology comprises two dimensions. Modern time series methods are used to uncover the dynamic patterns of urban–rural poverty and income inequality. A machine-learning algorithm is used to determine the causal structure among the development indicators. Our results show that reductions in rural poverty appear to be a more effective in reducing both urban and rural poverty, although the costs of achieving these reductions have not been considered.     

Informal settlement upgrading,assets and poverty alleviation: Evidence from longitudinal research in South Africa

This paper investigates the relationship between housing as an asset and the accumulation of other assets. Using data from a longitudinal research project stretching over nearly 25 years, we have found that besides actual income, there have also been improvements in self-perceived wealth ranking, asset holding, housing size, infrastructure access and human capital. Not all households have however benefited or been found to be better off. We have found that those households who had settled in Freedom Square after 1994 were indeed better off than the earlier settlers. Asset building is a slow process, one driven by stability (accessing urban land and secure tenure), finding an address, accessing education and finding work or remaining employed (though not necessarily in this particular sequence). Contrary to what the Department of Human Settlements suggests, we have found little evidence that informal settlement dwellers build assets by means of the secondary housing market.     

收入不平等、非正规金融与农户多维贫困

本研究利用中国家庭追踪调查数据,构建农户多维贫困的指标,实证分析了收入不平等 与非正规金融对农户多维贫困的影响。研究发现：第一,收入不平等的扩大显著加重了农户多维 贫困状况,采用三阶段联立方程处理内生性后,收入不平等对农户多维贫困的不利影响依然稳健。 第二,非正规金融对农户多维贫困具有显著的缓冲作用,且该效用在降低中等层次的多维贫困更 为显著。第三,非正规金融在收入不平等与农户多维贫困的关系中存在调节效应与中介效应;调 节效应表明,农户非正规金融越多,收入不平等对农户多维贫困的影响越小;中介效应表明,非 正规金融能够弱化收入不平等对农户多维贫困的负向影响。因此,完善非正规金融市场的发展, 不仅缓解日益扩大的收入不平等,而且改善农户多维贫困状况。     

Changes in Income Distributions and the Role of Tax‐Benefit Policy During the Great Recession: An International Perspective

In this paper, we examine the impact of the economic crisis and the policy reaction on inequality and relative poverty in four European countries: France, Germany, Ireland and the UK. The period examined, 2008–13, was one of great economic turmoil, yet it is unclear whether changes in inequality and poverty rates over this time period were mainly driven by changes in market income distributions or by tax‐benefit policy reforms. We disentangle these effects by producing counterfactual (‘no reform') scenarios using tax‐benefit microsimulation and representative household surveys for each country. For the first stage of the Great Recession, we find that the policy reaction contributed to stabilising or even decreasing inequality and relative poverty in the UK, France and, especially, Ireland. Market income changes nonetheless pushed up inequality and relative poverty in France. Relative poverty increased in Germany as a result of policy responses combined with market income changes. Subsequent policy reforms, in the later stage of the crisis, had markedly different cross‐country effects, decreasing overall poverty in France, increasing it in Ireland, and giving mixed effects for different subgroups in Germany and the UK.